Some Thoughts

Taking a step away from day to day predictions I thought I would share some of my thoughts from the season so far, as well as my season prediction for who will be crowned NBA champions this year.

There have been a few surprises so far this season, Lakers struggling to get any sort of cohesion going between their star players, struggling both offensively and defensively. Will they be able to get it together for the play offs? Personally, I am going to say no. Lakers will not win the NBA this season, quick athletic teams such as the Thunder will be able to expose their weaknesses and I cannot see Lakers even making it to the WCF if they have to play Memphis or Spurs in the earlier rounds. Will Dwight Howard resign? Probably, but if I was a Laker fan, I would have some concerns. In my opinion Lakers will at some point put this lack luster start behind them and make it into the play offs around 4th or 5th seed.

Another surprise is just how well Memphis have started, although tipped as a definite play off contender this year, I think we have all been surprised just how well they mesh as a unit, with a decent bench and M.Gasol making a case for being the best Center in the NBA currently (on form).

I have always been shocked at just how well Golden State Warriors have started with many people predicting another miserable season for them.  Perhaps the 2nd biggest surprise of the season, (after how dismal Lakers currently are) is the form of the Bobcats. There seems to be a renewed life in the team that was hopeless in defeat after defeat last season. Gordon is putting up some decent numbers along with Walker, and the rookie MKG looks like he is going to be a star in the making. can they keep this decent run up and make the playoffs...? Well..No, not this year, however I do not see them having the worst record in the NBA this year and will have a vastly improved record compared to last year.

My next point to address is, just who is going to win the NBA this year, and who has a realistic shot at making a serious championship run. My contenders are, Heat, Thunder, Grizzlies, Spurs, Knicks and MAYBE Lakers (I know in my above point i do not think they can win it, but I would be foolish to completely write them of so early in the season). I want to include Chicago in this list, and in fact I will add The Bulls and Celtics, however I cannot see anyone from the east stopping the Heat making the NBA final vs the western team. However we all know Doc Rivers will have his team show up with their game faces for the play offs, and this may be the last year for KG and The Truth to have a shot at glory, with Boston having a great point guard in Rondo and a decentish bench.
I have added the Bulls mainly due to my bias as a huge bulls fan, but also that i live in hope of Rose's return leading the team to a deep play off run.

Now for who will actually win the play offs, as an outside bet I would advise the Memphis Grizzlies. They are a huge team, with legit talent, decent bench and a good coach. I think they are tailor made to beat the Heat who simply cannot deal with huge strong teams, being such a small team. However their biggest problem is going to be making it out of the West, with such a stacked conference this will prove difficult. But they are definitely worth an outside bet.

I am going to gamble on the fact that Thunder may just have too much for the rest of the west come play off time and therefore face the Heat in the NBA final. If this is the case then heat takes this...I think?!!? there will be so much talent on display however, Lebron is Lebron, untouchable and unplayable when it is needed. In Battier and Allen they have a huge threat from beyond the arc, with Wade (who has immensely struggled so far this season) who I think may have 1 last year of greatness in him before we see him decline at a rapid rate  unless he can change his game and post up a little more. (his struggles this season seem to be due to a lack of athleticism though it is early days since his knee injury so i'll cut him some slack for now). I just don't see how thunder can guard miami, with doubling lebron who can drive and pop it out to a free ray allen who will punish the Thunder time after time. Therefore my prediction for the NBA this year is unfortunately a little boring in the fact that I am having to go with the pre season favorites Miami Heat.


 Lastly, I would like to give my thoughts on the Chicago Bulls, being that they are Adam and I's team and we follow them religiously.  I think the season has started pretty much as people have predicted, with the bulls hovering just over the .500 mark. A lot of people have predicted around a 50% win rate this year for the bulls, however maybe it is a little surprising how well they have done without Rose so far and a completely new bench. I have enjoyed watching Nate zipping around the court like one of those Duricell Energizer bunnies from the adverts. he has provided some real spark off the bench and come up with some decent numbers so far, Boozer has maybe done a little better than expected and Deng has started the season really well. Noah is in the best form I have ever seen from him and i think he deserves to make All Star this year if he keeps it up. Unfortunately I have been extremely disappointed with Kirk. I know he has had his injuries but he does not seem to be running the point particularly well at all (i don't know who i am shocked) and seems to be chucking up ridiculously tough shots at the end of shot clocks or passing it to a team mate with 4 seconds left on the clock. Jimmy has come on and done well at points and I hope with Rip injured he will be given some more minutes with deng maybe filling in at 2. With regards to the rookie point guard we signed in Teague, I haven't seen enough of him yet to make a judgement but he seems ok but needs a lot of work if he is to develop into a solid NBA starter.
It pains me to say it as I'm a big fan of Taj but I need to see more offense from him to justify this contract he's signed. I was happy we extended him but now he needs to step up and prove he is worth the $$$ we are paying him. I am optimistic and think he will put up some better offensive numbers.

So what do I expect from the Bulls this year?  I am expecting around a 4th seed depending on when D Rose comes back. The whispers are that he is sprinting and has started cutting which is indeed positive news. I think we can achieve around 60% win rate in the regular season, and then providing we avoid Miami until the ECF if Rose comes back to how he used to be (which is a big ask) then I can see us giving teams problems in the play offs with our excellent defense, and obviously the former MVP back to provide some much needed fire power. The bench is a worry for me, and for Bulls to make a decent play off run we need some production from Boozer (ergh) and hopefully Deng can put last seasons poor play off form vs the 76ers behind him and shine for us. If the Bulls can click with Rose having either Boozer or Deng helping him significantly on the scoring front I don't see why the bulls cannot at least reach the finals and give the Heat a series (probably losing 4-1).

Maybe I am being a little optimistic and some may think deluded, but hey, you've gotta back your team and dream a dream eh.

Thanks, Dave,