Western Conference Preview

I am going to take you through the Western play-offs and give you my predictions and opinions about each team. I hope you find this preview informative and insightful and it may give you some angles to take for series winners and series scores!

1st. Oklahoma City Thunder (60-22)

OKC have had another extremely impressive year with 60 wins and 22 loses finishing 1st in the West. There has been a lot made from Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant but their figures are consistent over the last two years and they will be offering the team the same heavy scoring throughout the play-offs. For me, the priority in my preview is focusing on the other cogs in the wheel. Serge Ibaka has been solid this year but I do believe the franchise wanted more from him. He is a blocking machine but I see defensive weaknesses in his game that rarely get shown up. Sefalosha is a renoun stout defender but his offense can be a little shaky. He shoots the corner 3 well but his other elements in offense is rather limited. Kendrick Perkins is my major concern with the Thunder. Other than offering numerous screens and gathering the odd rebound he does not really add much to the team. I do however, like Nick Collison. He is an industrious player who fights hard for every board and can hit score well in the low post. Is he a starter, no probably not, but he needs extensive minutes. Kevin Martin, for me, determines their success this year. Filling James Harden's boots is rather a momentous task and whilst he is not the powerhouse Harden is, he does score heavily and can defend. Martin needs to be hot for the big moments in the play-offs for the reason I am about to illustrate.

In the 'clutch' moments in a game which is defined on the NBA website as games within 5 points with 3 minutes or less to go, OKC are 10-16, which for the 1st seed is rather shocking! In these moments, Durant will be double teamed without doubt and Westbrook's performance in the tight situations is questionable. Thunder do not have what the Heat have in these moments and this is to be rightly flagged. The Thunder are justifiably one of the main contenders for the NBA title, but, more than last year I feel they are susceptible in the early rounds.

2. San Antonio Spurs (58-24)

The Spurs are the most consistent regular season performers in recent years and this year continued in the same vain. Tim Duncan seems to be playing some of the best Basketball of his career and Tony Parker continues to be around the top 3 Point Guards in the league. Manu Ginobli, who usually is a sixth man of the year contender, has had a quiet year due to injury. The Spurs certainly will need him firing on all cylinders leading into the playoffs. The Spurs are extremely strong at home (35-6) and significantly weaker on the road (23-18). This could be a concern for them, even though they have home court to the final. Thiago Splitter has been ever improving this year and has given the Spurs some good minutes on the back of Duncan. Leonard and Green need to be hot in offense in the post-season as they can shoot the 3 well as well as drive to the rim, albeit rather erratically.  The Spurs are ranked 4th in offense and 11th in defence, which speaks volumes to me. They need to be  notching 100+ points to be winning games, otherwise I can see them falling short quite comfortably. Their ball movement (1st in assits) is not to be ignored however this is counter-acted by their grabbing of boards (21st in rebounds). An aged Duncan does not dominate the rebounds against younger and more agile Centres and his forward department do not aid him that well. Pop will have the Spurs fired up and well drilled as we know but will this be enough? I am afraid to say that I really don't think it will be..

3. Denver Nuggets (57-25)

Possibly the biggest surprise of the year has come from the Nuggets and rightly so, Coach Brown is in the mix for Coach of the year. What I really like about Denver is that they know what works for them, and they stick to this. They play fast break ball and use this to their advantage whenever possible. Their location and altitude is clearly known and this does have an effect on opposition (38-3 home record). Their achilles heel is their performances on the road (19-22) and this must be altered to have any chance in this ludicrously competitive Western side. The Nuggets' individual stats look very promising, excluding their points conceded. PPG = 1st, APG = 3rd and RPG = 2nd. They do rank 21st in points conceded but this is just simply the way they play. Iguodala who has had a solid season on the trade across will need to defend his socks off in the play-offs. Ty Lawson has been running the point well this year sinking 20 points a game but the Nuggets will need him to help him run more half-court plays as teams will give up rebounds against Denver to avoid fast breaks. One thing that must be considered is that teams will have more preparation and adjustment time in Denver before the games which is rather unique to the post-season, thus minimising the home court affect Denver have over teams. Having said that, I really like Denver in the West and think they could go very far. The whole way I doubt, but the Spurs should be ready to do some running.

4. LA Clippers (56-26)

Many people had high expectations of the Clippers this year and they have not disappointed in what has been a breakout year for the franchise. It has been no secret that since the trade of CP3 from the Hornets the Clippers have been trying to become the most realistic shot at the title coming out of LA. The Clippers as a Basketball tipster are a hard team to make sense of. On paper their first 10 are extremely strong, yet at times, it does not work this way. My co-writer would not like to hear this, but for me, CP3 is the best point guard in the league. He controls their offense extremely well and is the best PG defender the NBA has to offer. I do however, have an issue with him; that being he does not shoot the ball enough! He has an extremely nice stroke and can layup in traffic yet does not take this on enough. He needs to get active on this front in the post-season to help their chances. Blake Griffin is quite the highlight man and this can often get people carried away with his achievements. His post-game, whilst improving, has issues and his jump shot from anything beyond 12ft is erratic and unpredictable. Deandre Jordan needs to hit the boards hard in this post-season as from my own experience he gets dominated far too often in this area. I do love their bench strength though (Crawford, Barnes, Hill etc) and this often gets the Clippers away from teams in the 2nd quarter and the end of the 3rd quarter. Their squad depth and rotation is going to keep in with a shout of every series but their star players need to step up in order to make them serious contenders. All I will say is that their series against the Grizzlies is going to be a humdinger. If they progress, then who knows?

5. Memphis Grizzlies (56-26)

The Memphis Grizzlies, unlike most of the Western Conference are a defensive team. They are ranked 27th in offense but 1st in defence this year and this defence is going to be well and truly tested in the next couple of weeks. The loss of Rudy Gay was well documented and with Prince as a replacement quite a common question is; Can they still do it? Marc Gasol, for me, is the best centre in the NBA right now. His passing and work in the paint is fantastic and he is having a fantastic season. Zach Randolph has complemented him well down low and they will have no surprises when going into games when trying to score. Surprising they only rank 11th on rebounds and I would have thought this would be higher. This is an area they must succeed at as their defence will be forced to work so hard if they are giving out 2nd chance points that this will take toll eventually. In my opinion, the key for the Grizzlies is the success of Mike Conley. He has been going off recently but against the best teams in the league can he do this over seven games. When Grizzlies score 100+ points they are 23-1 and Conley has a big responsibly getting them close to the 100 mark. If they can do that consistently they will be close to the mark. Would Gay have got them even closer to that 100 - probably, I hope that trade doesn't cost the Grizzlies a real shot at the Championship - I have a nagging feeling it did.

6. Golden State Warriors (47-35)

The Warriors are one of the league's most improved teams this year and they have Stephen Curry to thank for that. Obviously this Warriors team is not a one man team, but Curry this year has been extremely impressive. They are 3rd in points scored and ranked 19th in points given up so much like the rest of the west have their strength with the ball in hand. The Warriors heavily rely on the 3 pt shooting and shoot 5% higher on 3s (42%) in wins compared to losses (37%). This, over a season, is a rather noticeable difference and explains what their issues could be, if their teams close off their open looks well. David Lee made the all-star this year and whilst his rebounding statistics and his double-double names are to be noted, he does have massive isolation D issues. The regaining of Andrew Bogut helps the Warriors compete in the paint and Harrison Barnes has been a nice draft acquisiton for them. I struggle with the Warriors though, as my eyes and my fingers keep wanting to go back to Curry. The guy has an unbelievable jump shot and is striking up some big numbers in big games. In post-season games though, I just don't see him getting the open looks he needs to hit 30 points a game. The Warriors face an extremely tough first round fixture @ Denver and I think that this could be the end of the road for the coastal team. 

7. Los Angeles Lakers (45-37)

After being on a roller-coaster with this team over the last two months it seems strange to type that they are the 7th seed! In this preview I am not going to focus on what has happened to Kobe, because it's all in the past. The Lakers must move on and focus on what they can affect in the post-season. Pau Gasol has been improving ever since his return from his energy and I have been enjoying watching his resurgence. The guy has some of the best post moves in the league but he still has huge defensive frailties. The Lakers seem to be fighting a losing battle trying to keep Steve Nash's body together for the playoffs and this may have a significant impact on what they can achieve. One thing is for sure, that if he does return, he better be splashing some 3's otherwise they are in trouble. We now come onto their now leading player - Dwight Howard. 'Superman' has had his critics this year from all-sorts of pundits and fans and this is his time to silence them all. Dwight needs to be averaging 15 rebounds a game at least for the Lakers to stand a chance, whilst also scoring 20+ points every game. Hack a Dwight will play a part in the Spurs series, that I am sure, so Dwight needs to be hitting 70% of FT's for LA to progress - quite a challenge I hear you ask. Metta World-Peace (Ron Artest) is a soldier and will give 110% every time he steps onto the court and defend extremely well in iso's. However, he is killing the Lakers in his woeful offense and I don't see this changing.

There is something nagging in the back of my mind that keeps telling me the Lakers against all the odds could progress in this conference. Yes they are banged up, yes they are ageing but there is something about this franchise that doesn't lose in the 1st round of the playoffs. I personally cannot wait for the Spurs - Lakers series and see this being a cracker!

8. Houston Rockets (45-37)

It almost seems poetic that James Harden is going to be facing his old teammates in Oklahoma in the first round fixture. The Rockets have been a jigsaw team this year placing new pieces in during the off-season and after 82 games it seems they are fitting together nicely now. Omar Asik is down to possibly win most improved player of the year and you can see why they tried so hard to take him away from Chicago. He is a honest, hard working centre, who grabs a lot of boards and defends physically and smartly. Unfortunately for him, he is on his own in the defending well category as the Rockets rank 28th in points conceded. Chandler Parsons is an impressive scorer but has many things to learn on D and players like Delfino and Beverley fit into this non-defensive group well. Jeremy Lin has found it difficult to run the half-court with so much of the action going to the beard. His stats have not lit up Houston like fans hoped during the Linsanity period but this relationship is forever improving. 

Many pundits and experts debate who the best scorer in the NBA is between Melo and KD but I believe James Harden is well and truly making this a 3man debate. He can shoot the 3 and drive on both sides of the basket and is very skilful at drawing fouls and going to the line. He has, by any means, had a wondrous season in Houston and you have to wonder whether or not the Thunder are kicking themselves. I have a fear that he will try and take too much on during the series against OKC and not share the ball enough to truly worry them. If they can swing the ball around in offense and not become a one man team they will score 100+ on a regular basis. The issue is, can they keep teams below this total? The regular season suggests no, and I have to go with the stats. I see the Rockets offering up some great entertainment but they lack the defensive rotations and hustle to really threaten the strongest team in the West.