With the series tied at 2-2 we can expect some fiercely intense games over the next few days between the Pacers and the Heat. The series is finely balanced, with the Heat still big favourites in the eyes of the bookies to go through to face the rejuvenated San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals. However, here at NBATips1 we think the Pacers could cause the shock and make it through to face the best in the West.
What has been surprising is how well the Pacers offense has been in the road games, with multiple players scoring well which aids their great defensive efforts at the other end. It was a different story for the most part vs the Knicks and although the pacers do match up better vs Miami it is still pleasantly surprising to see them execute their offensive strategies so well.
A few reasons for this are of course the fact that they are destroying Miami on the boards, with Hibbert and West really beasting, which in turn gives the Pacers many more opportunities to make baskets. Bosh is simply killing Miami on boards, averaging 3 a game or 1 every 10 minutes over the series!
Furthermore Hibbert is almost unguardable at 7'2 280lbs if he gets near the basket for a post up then it's an almost guaranteed 2 points for the Pacers. Miami's only hope of limiting Hibbert is to force him away from the basket and get him to post up nearer the free throw line as well as educated double teams to try and force the ball out of his hands without leaving another player completely free for an uncontested shot.
David West is also having a great series on both ends of the floor, using his strength down low to great effect. He is also helping a lot of the boards
On the Miami side of things in some games it is almost as if they have turned into the 2009 Cavs under Lebron rather than 'the big 3' with good role players. Bosh has turned from a monster into a 13/6 player after being a 25/10 player in his Raptor days. Wade seems a shell of his former self at times, and their 3 point shooters have not been at their deadly best. Lebron is dominating the ball (with good reason) but Bosh is being told to camp out on the perimeter in the hope of spacing the floor and drawing Hibbert away from the the basket is order to aid Lebron and Wades drives. However, Hibbert is simply leaving Bosh out there and protecting the paint. The Pacers will happily accept long 2's from Bosh all day long rather than Lebron lay ups.
Miami need to get Bosh into the post, or at the very least get back to their amazing ball movement which gives them huge success during the regular season as well as at times when it is utilized vs the Pacers during this series. Lebron also gave Miami the advantage when he posted up his man enabling much better looks for his 3 point shooters in Allen Battier and co. At the moment it seems that Bosh is basically a non-factor the majority of the time, Wade ios clearly hurt, and Miami are relying on Lebron plus one other player to step up which has been either Cole or Chalmers at points during the post season. With the series tied at 2-2 Miami really need to get back to team basketball in order to make it through to the finals. It also doesn't help that Spo seems to be changing his offensive sets almost game to game, which is causing confusion to the players.
Having said that the total points line is sailing over time and again, and this is mainly due to the bookies underestimating the Pacers effectiveness vs the Miami defense as well as slightly overrating Pacers own defense.
Miami cannot guard the Pacers as effectively as they would want to and on the other end of things, Miami are still Miami scoring at a decent rate compared to the line at the other end. Miami will always be putting up minimum of 90 points per game as they do have so many weapons, but the Pacers will also not have 70 point shockers like they did vs the Knicks. The points line has shifted from a 179 to a 185 from game 1 to 5, however, this is way too low and although Pacers can struggle offensively away, they will still likely get at least 85 points with the more likely range of around 90-95. Miami will get at least 90 and hopefully they will start to move the ball more and knock down their open 3's which will see a total of around 100 being posted.
We await tonight's game with great intrigue to see what changes both teams make to counteract each other, but I expect the points line to hit around 195 to 200 tonight, although picking a winner is going to be difficult!
Hope this proved an enjoyable read, thanks, Dave.
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