Pacers @ Heat, Over 185 points, 1.94 (188bet) and Over 192.5 2.62 (bet365) alternate points spread
Good luck!
Thursday, 30 May 2013
Why the Pacers could beat the Heat and reasons why games have been going over the total points
With the series tied at 2-2 we can expect some fiercely intense games over the next few days between the Pacers and the Heat. The series is finely balanced, with the Heat still big favourites in the eyes of the bookies to go through to face the rejuvenated San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals. However, here at NBATips1 we think the Pacers could cause the shock and make it through to face the best in the West.
What has been surprising is how well the Pacers offense has been in the road games, with multiple players scoring well which aids their great defensive efforts at the other end. It was a different story for the most part vs the Knicks and although the pacers do match up better vs Miami it is still pleasantly surprising to see them execute their offensive strategies so well.
A few reasons for this are of course the fact that they are destroying Miami on the boards, with Hibbert and West really beasting, which in turn gives the Pacers many more opportunities to make baskets. Bosh is simply killing Miami on boards, averaging 3 a game or 1 every 10 minutes over the series!
Furthermore Hibbert is almost unguardable at 7'2 280lbs if he gets near the basket for a post up then it's an almost guaranteed 2 points for the Pacers. Miami's only hope of limiting Hibbert is to force him away from the basket and get him to post up nearer the free throw line as well as educated double teams to try and force the ball out of his hands without leaving another player completely free for an uncontested shot.
David West is also having a great series on both ends of the floor, using his strength down low to great effect. He is also helping a lot of the boards
On the Miami side of things in some games it is almost as if they have turned into the 2009 Cavs under Lebron rather than 'the big 3' with good role players. Bosh has turned from a monster into a 13/6 player after being a 25/10 player in his Raptor days. Wade seems a shell of his former self at times, and their 3 point shooters have not been at their deadly best. Lebron is dominating the ball (with good reason) but Bosh is being told to camp out on the perimeter in the hope of spacing the floor and drawing Hibbert away from the the basket is order to aid Lebron and Wades drives. However, Hibbert is simply leaving Bosh out there and protecting the paint. The Pacers will happily accept long 2's from Bosh all day long rather than Lebron lay ups.
Miami need to get Bosh into the post, or at the very least get back to their amazing ball movement which gives them huge success during the regular season as well as at times when it is utilized vs the Pacers during this series. Lebron also gave Miami the advantage when he posted up his man enabling much better looks for his 3 point shooters in Allen Battier and co. At the moment it seems that Bosh is basically a non-factor the majority of the time, Wade ios clearly hurt, and Miami are relying on Lebron plus one other player to step up which has been either Cole or Chalmers at points during the post season. With the series tied at 2-2 Miami really need to get back to team basketball in order to make it through to the finals. It also doesn't help that Spo seems to be changing his offensive sets almost game to game, which is causing confusion to the players.
Having said that the total points line is sailing over time and again, and this is mainly due to the bookies underestimating the Pacers effectiveness vs the Miami defense as well as slightly overrating Pacers own defense.
Miami cannot guard the Pacers as effectively as they would want to and on the other end of things, Miami are still Miami scoring at a decent rate compared to the line at the other end. Miami will always be putting up minimum of 90 points per game as they do have so many weapons, but the Pacers will also not have 70 point shockers like they did vs the Knicks. The points line has shifted from a 179 to a 185 from game 1 to 5, however, this is way too low and although Pacers can struggle offensively away, they will still likely get at least 85 points with the more likely range of around 90-95. Miami will get at least 90 and hopefully they will start to move the ball more and knock down their open 3's which will see a total of around 100 being posted.
We await tonight's game with great intrigue to see what changes both teams make to counteract each other, but I expect the points line to hit around 195 to 200 tonight, although picking a winner is going to be difficult!
Hope this proved an enjoyable read, thanks, Dave.
What has been surprising is how well the Pacers offense has been in the road games, with multiple players scoring well which aids their great defensive efforts at the other end. It was a different story for the most part vs the Knicks and although the pacers do match up better vs Miami it is still pleasantly surprising to see them execute their offensive strategies so well.
A few reasons for this are of course the fact that they are destroying Miami on the boards, with Hibbert and West really beasting, which in turn gives the Pacers many more opportunities to make baskets. Bosh is simply killing Miami on boards, averaging 3 a game or 1 every 10 minutes over the series!
Furthermore Hibbert is almost unguardable at 7'2 280lbs if he gets near the basket for a post up then it's an almost guaranteed 2 points for the Pacers. Miami's only hope of limiting Hibbert is to force him away from the basket and get him to post up nearer the free throw line as well as educated double teams to try and force the ball out of his hands without leaving another player completely free for an uncontested shot.
David West is also having a great series on both ends of the floor, using his strength down low to great effect. He is also helping a lot of the boards
On the Miami side of things in some games it is almost as if they have turned into the 2009 Cavs under Lebron rather than 'the big 3' with good role players. Bosh has turned from a monster into a 13/6 player after being a 25/10 player in his Raptor days. Wade seems a shell of his former self at times, and their 3 point shooters have not been at their deadly best. Lebron is dominating the ball (with good reason) but Bosh is being told to camp out on the perimeter in the hope of spacing the floor and drawing Hibbert away from the the basket is order to aid Lebron and Wades drives. However, Hibbert is simply leaving Bosh out there and protecting the paint. The Pacers will happily accept long 2's from Bosh all day long rather than Lebron lay ups.
Miami need to get Bosh into the post, or at the very least get back to their amazing ball movement which gives them huge success during the regular season as well as at times when it is utilized vs the Pacers during this series. Lebron also gave Miami the advantage when he posted up his man enabling much better looks for his 3 point shooters in Allen Battier and co. At the moment it seems that Bosh is basically a non-factor the majority of the time, Wade ios clearly hurt, and Miami are relying on Lebron plus one other player to step up which has been either Cole or Chalmers at points during the post season. With the series tied at 2-2 Miami really need to get back to team basketball in order to make it through to the finals. It also doesn't help that Spo seems to be changing his offensive sets almost game to game, which is causing confusion to the players.
Having said that the total points line is sailing over time and again, and this is mainly due to the bookies underestimating the Pacers effectiveness vs the Miami defense as well as slightly overrating Pacers own defense.
Miami cannot guard the Pacers as effectively as they would want to and on the other end of things, Miami are still Miami scoring at a decent rate compared to the line at the other end. Miami will always be putting up minimum of 90 points per game as they do have so many weapons, but the Pacers will also not have 70 point shockers like they did vs the Knicks. The points line has shifted from a 179 to a 185 from game 1 to 5, however, this is way too low and although Pacers can struggle offensively away, they will still likely get at least 85 points with the more likely range of around 90-95. Miami will get at least 90 and hopefully they will start to move the ball more and knock down their open 3's which will see a total of around 100 being posted.
We await tonight's game with great intrigue to see what changes both teams make to counteract each other, but I expect the points line to hit around 195 to 200 tonight, although picking a winner is going to be difficult!
Hope this proved an enjoyable read, thanks, Dave.
Tuesday, 28 May 2013
Tuesday 28th May
Heat @ Pacers, Heat -2.5 points and Over 185 points both 1.95 LOST AND WON
Best of luck
Best of luck
Monday, 27 May 2013
Monday 27th May
Spurs @ Grizzlies, Over 180 points, 1.94 (188bet)Player performance bet
Mike Conley - Under 18 points (Memphis Grizzlies), 1.83 (Bwin)
Sunday, 26 May 2013
Saturday, 25 May 2013
Saturday 25th May
Spurs @ Grizzlies, Grizzlies money line 1.5 and Spurs +5.5 points, 1.91 (various) LOST AND WON
Good luck
Good luck
Friday, 24 May 2013
Friday 24th May
Pacers @ Heat, Pacers +7.5 (1.91) various and Over 182 points, 1.91 (various) WON BOTH
Good luck!
Good luck!
Wednesday, 22 May 2013
Tuesday, 21 May 2013
Sunday, 19 May 2013
Sunday 19th May
Grizzlies @ Spurs: over 181.5 points 1.95 WON
Just the one tip today, but we are confident that this will land with a few points to spare. Good luck everyone
Just the one tip today, but we are confident that this will land with a few points to spare. Good luck everyone
Thursday, 16 May 2013
Thursday 16th May
Pacers @ Knicks: Pacers to win moneyline 2.8 betfair George Hill is out of tonight's game so we do not advise this tip now. However we do advise over 180.5 points 1.90 bet365 WON
Spurs @ GSW: Over 194.5 points bet365
Spurs @ GSW: Over 194.5 points bet365
Wednesday, 15 May 2013
Wednesday 15th May
 |
| Will the Bulls continue to give Bosh open looks? |
Grizzlies @ Thunder, Under 185 points, 1.91 (various) WON
Chris Bosh over 15.5 points, 1.83 (bet365) LOST
Joakim Noah over 10.5 rebounds, 1.83 (bet365) LOST
Good luck!!
Tuesday, 14 May 2013
Tuesday 14th May
Knicks @ Pacers: Over 179.5 points currently 1.96 on Betfair
GSW @ Spurs: over 195 points 1.90 Bet 365
Knicks @ Pacers: Pacers to win money line 1.51 currently on betfair
GSW @ Spurs: over 195 points 1.90 Bet 365
Knicks @ Pacers: Pacers to win money line 1.51 currently on betfair
Monday, 13 May 2013
Monday 13th May
 |
| Can the Heat take a dominating 3-1 lead? |
Thunder @ Grizzlies, Over 184.5 points 1.87 (skybet) WON
Good luck!
Sunday, 12 May 2013
Sunday 12th May
 |
| Curry could miss g4 with an ankle injury |
Saturday, 11 May 2013
Saturday 11th May
Thunder @ Grizzlies: Under 187.5 1.95 WON
Knicks @ Pacers: Pacers -4.5 points 1.95 WON
Knicks @ Pacers: Pacers -4.5 points 1.95 WON
Friday, 10 May 2013
Friday 10th May
 |
| Can Noah lead Bulls to a 2-1 lead? |
Heat @ Bulls, Under 187.5 points, 1.91 (Stan James/Bet Victor) 1/2 unit LOST
Spurs @ Warriors, Warriors money line 1.79 (WBX) or 1.76 (Youwin) LOST
Player performances
Carlos Boozer - Over 9 rebounds 1.83 (bet365) LOST
Joakim Noah - Over 12.5 points 1.83 (bet365) WON
Wednesday, 8 May 2013
Wednesday 8th May
 |
| Can Butler reproduce his G1 form? |
Bulls @ Heat, Under 187 points, 1.97 (Youwin) LOST
Warriors @ Spurs, Warriors +7.5 points, 1.91 (Ladbrokes, Corals, Will Hill and 188 sport) WON
Good luck!
Tuesday, 7 May 2013
Tuesday 7th May
Pacers @ Knicks: Over 183 points 1.95 WON
Pacers @ Knicks: Pacers plus 9.5 points 1.52 Bet365 alternate points line LOST
Grizzlies @ Thunder: over 180.5 points 1.50 Bet365 additional game totals line WON
Player performance bets may follow but lines are currently not out yet.
Pacers @ Knicks: Pacers plus 9.5 points 1.52 Bet365 alternate points line LOST
Grizzlies @ Thunder: over 180.5 points 1.50 Bet365 additional game totals line WON
Player performance bets may follow but lines are currently not out yet.
Monday, 6 May 2013
Monday 6th May
Bulls @ Heat, Over 187 points, 1.91 (Betaway) LOST
 |
| Can Boozer help to lift the Bulls? |
Warriors @ Spurs, Warriors +11.5 points, 1.61 (Alternate point spread - bet365) WON
1/2 unit Player Performance Bets
Carlos Boozer, Over 10.5 rebounds, 1.83 (bet365) Grabbed 7 but only played 25 minutes - LOST
Dwayne Wade, Under 20.5 points, 1.83 (bet365) WON
Sunday, 5 May 2013
Sunday 5th May
Second round starts today: A decent 1st round so far from us lets hope it continues for round 2!
Pacers@ Knicks: Selection: Pacers plus 5.5 points 1.90 bet365 WON
Pacers @ Knicks: Selection: Over 182.5 points 2.18 betfair (currently) WON
Grizzlies @ Thunder: Selection Over 186 points 1.90 bet 365 LOST
No player performance lines up yet but will be putting some up if we see anything we think is value. Good Luck
Pacers@ Knicks: Selection: Pacers plus 5.5 points 1.90 bet365 WON
Pacers @ Knicks: Selection: Over 182.5 points 2.18 betfair (currently) WON
Grizzlies @ Thunder: Selection Over 186 points 1.90 bet 365 LOST
No player performance lines up yet but will be putting some up if we see anything we think is value. Good Luck
Friday, 3 May 2013
Friday 3rd May
Knicks @ Celtics: Over 181.5 points 1.95 LOST
Thunder @ Rockets: Over 206 points 1.95 LOST
Clippers @ Grizzlies: Over 180 points 1.95 WON
Carmelo Anthony Over 31.5 points on Bet 365 1.83 (player performance bet) LOST
Good Luck tonight followers. Steady profit so far this play offs we are happy with how things are going. Remember to follow us on Twitter @nbatips1
Thunder @ Rockets: Over 206 points 1.95 LOST
Clippers @ Grizzlies: Over 180 points 1.95 WON
Carmelo Anthony Over 31.5 points on Bet 365 1.83 (player performance bet) LOST
Good Luck tonight followers. Steady profit so far this play offs we are happy with how things are going. Remember to follow us on Twitter @nbatips1
Thursday, 2 May 2013
Thursday 2nd May
 |
| Can the Nets take it to Game 7? |
Nate Robinson: Over 16.5 points, 1.71 (Bet365) WON
Tip/s may follow for Nets @ Bulls depending on team news etc - so stay tuned to our twitter account @NBATips1
Good luck!
Wednesday, 1 May 2013
Wednesday 1st May
Rockets @ Thunder: Selection: Rockets plus 8.5 points 1.90 Bet 365 WON
Hawks @ Pacers: Under 187.5 points 1.90 Bet365 LOST
Celtics @ Knicks: Over 173 points 1.41 alternative points line on Bet365 WON
Player performance bets may follow later, but were not available at the time I wrote this. As always good luck with any NBA selections you make tonight guys.
Also remember to follow us on Twitter: @NBATIPS1
Hawks @ Pacers: Under 187.5 points 1.90 Bet365 LOST
Celtics @ Knicks: Over 173 points 1.41 alternative points line on Bet365 WON
Player performance bets may follow later, but were not available at the time I wrote this. As always good luck with any NBA selections you make tonight guys.
Also remember to follow us on Twitter: @NBATIPS1
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