Sunday 17th March

Heat @ Raptors, 5pm tip-off UK TIME

Enough has been made of the Heat run over the past few weeks and in our opinion at NBATips1 tower we simply cannot see past them for the title this year. With regards to this specific match-up against the Raptors, they are looking pretty nailed on for another victory.

Stats (O = Offence and D = Defence)

• Post-up - Heat O = 1st, Raptors D = 21st
• Spot-up - Heat O = 2nd, Raptors D = 15th
• Iso - Heat O = 2nd, Raptors D = 17th
• Cut - Heat O = 1st, Raptors D = 21st
• PnR - Heat O = 2nd, Raptors D = 13th

As you can see from these individual breakdowns the Heat dominate the Raptors in all major scoring areas. Again, the perceived weakness of the Heat is grabbing boards but is in actual fact they grab 1% (73% to 72%) more boards defensively than the Raptors do. 

Psychology

The Raptors will up their game as the Heat come to town and the crowd will be more vocal. The Raptors tend to score quite heavily on the earlier starts and they tend to start fast with the Heat more sluggish looking for Bosh more often in the 1st Q. Overall though the Heat will be pumped to take this match and continue their streak

H2H

The Heat over the past three seasons lead the Raptors 9-0 and I cannot see their run ending now. They are winning by an average of over 9 points and this year this is over 10 points. 

From my research I have two picks that I would like to go for in this match-up

PICK 1: Heat -5 points on the alternate points handicap - 1.57 (bet365) 2unit bet WON

PICK 2: Toronto +2.5 points 1st Quarter - 1.91 (William Hill) 1/2 unit bet LOST

Knicks @ Clippers, 7.30pm tip-off UK Time

The Knicks are starting to struggle in the later stages of the season and Melo' Anthony having injury concerns is certainly no help to this cause. I fully expect him to miss this game as the Knicks subconciously have written this one off going to a vibrant Clippers team.

Statistics

• Spot-up - Clippers O = 3rd, Knicks D = 18th
• Iso - Clippers O = 6th, Knicks D = 27th
• Cut - Clippers O = 11th, Knicks D = 23rd
• PnR - Clippers O = 7th, Knicks D = 29th

On the switch there are virtually no categories where the Knicks dominate the Clippers and this is going to be a concern. The Clippers love to Spot up (18% of the time) and use the PnR (17% of the time) and they completely dominate the Knicks in this area. The Knicks do rank number 1 in the post-up defence and the Clippers should avoid this and just focus on perimeter shooting today. This piece of information  leads me to tip number 1 today.

Psychology

The Knicks do not really want to slip too far down the Eastern rankings but they are secure of probably a top 6 spot in the conference and therefore avoid the Heat. I do question their ambition to really win this game today and they may see it as a write-off. It is on ABC which does sometimes inspire both teams for more of a physical affair but this suits the Clippers for me. The Clippers have been on mixed form recently (6-4) but at home on national TV against a mirror like opponent means they should feel pretty pumped for this after losing at home against the Grizzlies.

H2H

Just the one game this year but the Clippers took it 102-88 at the Garden which illustrates their dominance over a team like the Knicks.

I have 3 tips that I would like to suggest for today's game but the line for one has not come out yet. 

Tip number 1: Clippers -12.5 points, 2.04 (Pinnacle) 1 unit bet WON

Tip number 2: Clippers -3 points 1st Q, 1.91 (Will Hill) 1/2 unit bet WON

Tip number 3: Blake Griffin - Under 20.5 points 1.83 (bet365) WON

Remaining tips

Warriors @ Rockets, Under 216.5 points, 1.95 1 unit bet WON

Points double: Lakers/Kings Over 212 and Nets/Hawks Under 189 (3.80 with Pinnacle) 1/2 unit bet LOST