Today offers us some very exciting games in prospect and to start with I am only looking at the double header on Sky (UK) and ABC (US).
Clippers @ Knicks, 6pm tip off
Looking at these stats in quite a lot of depth this morning and for me these two teams cannot be separated. Clippers are returning to health and whilst CP3 is somewhat rusty after a longish lay-off the Magic game prepared him quite well for this. The Knicks have been very dominant at home this year and tend to do very well on a Sunday afternoon.
Looking through all of the match ups on synergy the offence of both teams dominate the relevant defence for the opposite team. Clippers dominate in the PnR area and Knicks do not defend this well. It is no illusion that the Knicks go to spot ups (long 2s and 3s) to score a lot of their points and the Clippers are ranked 25th at defending spot ups. The early start usually leans to higher points at the Garden and therefore the play for me is the over points today. Hopefully both benches will come to the party as well and if the 3s reign, this line will cruise in.
Over 193.5 is currently at 2.11 (Pinnacle) and this is more than worth taking LOST
Lakers @ Heat, 8.30pm tip off
The Lakers are really teetering on the edge of making the play-offs this year and with Pau Gasol now out for 6 weeks that proves a massive blow for them. Dwight Howard by anyone's judgement is not fitting in as well as once was hoped with him and Kobe having a well documented spat earlier in the week. The match-up tonight, for me, is one sided and depends on Miami playing to the sort of level they are capable of. It is likely that Kobe and Wade will guard each other and for me this leaves LeBron to do most of the scoring.
The Heat took the Lakers by 9 points at the Staples Centre in January and back at the American Airlines should mean this kind of margin can be maintained. Heat should get Chris Bosh and Ray Allen back and this is good news as the Lakers don't defend the 3 ball or long 2 (Bosh) particularly well. The Lakers face their 7th road game in a row and after getting pumped by the Celtics and only just overcoming the Bobcats.Offensively both teams are a huge force with the Heat scoring 101 points per 100 possessions and the Lakers match that with 100.8 points per 100 possessions. Defensively is where it changes. A lot is made of Heat's ability to grab the boards but at 72.60% on D they are only 1% behind the Lakers. Offensive rebounds is somewhat of a concern but the Lakers do offer very good looks and therefore 2nd chance points should not be too often. The PnR the Heat are number 1 offensively and the Lakers are only 16th at defending this. Isolation plays the Heat love to run in clutch times and they are ranked 1 offensively and Lakers are ranked 23rd. Post up (rank 4 offensively v 12th defensively) and transition basketball are another two areas where the Heat dominate the Lakers.
With all of these statistics to back up my reasoning along with a hefty road trip the Lakers are on without Pau and Dwight's head all over the shop means the spread is one for me to take.
My selection: Heat -7.5 points, 1.91 (bwin) WON
Tasty treble
Rockets @ Kings (Over 216.5 points), Raptors -3.5 and T'wolves +9 points = 7.30 (Pinnacle)LOST
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